How to · guide 06 of 12 · 4 min read

Conditional branching — the branch a risk decides

tab 3 Risk Register · the sub-select under Mode = branch

Guide 05 flips a weighted coin every iteration. Often the truth is sharper: the re-work path is taken exactly when some earlier risk fires — "design review fails" is the route into the re-work loop, not an independent draw. That's conditional branching, and it's one extra dropdown.

  1. Model the trigger risk first — the risk whose firing decides the route ("Design review fails", "Consent refused"). It must sit above the branch risk in the register: risks are evaluated top-down, so the trigger has to be resolved before the branch consults it. Add the trigger before the branch and it lands in the right order.
  2. Set up the branch as in guide 05Mode = branch, re-work head mapped first.
  3. Point the branch at the trigger. When Mode is branch, a second select appears beneath it: by probability (the default — unconditional) or if R-xx fires for each earlier risk. Choose the trigger.
  4. Run. No probability draw is consumed: in every iteration where the trigger fired, path one is taken; otherwise path two. Fire probability, correlation, everything about the trigger risk flows through into which future the schedule lives — Pertmaster-style conditional branching, driven from the register.
Order is the contract. The controlling risk must be listed above the branch risk — the dropdown only offers earlier rows (the register has no drag-reorder, so add triggers early). Switching Mode away from branch clears the stored condition.
Wire a trigger to a path →
← 05 · Probabilistic branching All 12 guides 07 · Weather & seasonal downtime →