How to · guide 06 of 12 · 4 min read
Conditional branching — the branch a risk decides
tab 3 Risk Register · the sub-select under Mode = branch
Guide 05 flips a weighted coin every iteration. Often the truth is sharper: the re-work path is taken exactly when some earlier risk fires — "design review fails" is the route into the re-work loop, not an independent draw. That's conditional branching, and it's one extra dropdown.
- Model the trigger risk first — the risk whose firing decides the route ("Design review fails", "Consent refused"). It must sit above the branch risk in the register: risks are evaluated top-down, so the trigger has to be resolved before the branch consults it. Add the trigger before the branch and it lands in the right order.
- Set up the branch as in guide 05 — Mode = branch, re-work head mapped first.
- Point the branch at the trigger. When Mode is branch, a second select appears beneath it: by probability (the default — unconditional) or if R-xx fires for each earlier risk. Choose the trigger.
- Run. No probability draw is consumed: in every iteration where the trigger fired, path one is taken; otherwise path two. Fire probability, correlation, everything about the trigger risk flows through into which future the schedule lives — Pertmaster-style conditional branching, driven from the register.
Order is the contract. The controlling risk must be listed above the branch risk — the dropdown only offers earlier rows (the register has no drag-reorder, so add triggers early). Switching Mode away from branch clears the stored condition.
Wire a trigger to a path →