Prepared 18 Jul 2026 · RunMonteCarlo (runmontecarlo.com) · analysis performed entirely client-side — the schedule never left the analyst's machine
1 · Executive summary
The deterministic (single-point CPM) completion of Tower C — Substation & Civils is 24 Aug 2027 (255 working days). Monte Carlo simulation of 5,000 schedule outcomes — combining background duration uncertainty with 5 discrete register risks — indicates this plan has only a 2% probability of being achieved.
At the P80 confidence level — the level typically adopted for commitment — the completion date is 31 Dec 2027, a risk exposure of 93 working days beyond the deterministic plan. The exposure is dominated by: Ground conditions worse than expected (+65d), Switchgear delivery delay (+46d), Commissioning defects (+15d).
Deterministic
24 Aug 2027
P50
10 Nov 2027
P80 — commit
31 Dec 2027
P90
1 Feb 2028
2 · Schedule fitness attestation
This analysis was run on a schedule that was assessed against a DCMA-aligned QSRA-readiness check at import. Verdict: READY · score 100/100 across 16 activities.
3 · Method statement
Monte Carlo simulation (5,000 iterations, seeded pseudo-random sampling) over the project CPM network (16 activities; FS/SS/FF/SF logic with lag honoured; full forward/backward pass per iteration). Background duration uncertainty was applied as three-point estimates and discrete risk events sampled per iteration by probability of occurrence; opportunities modelled with negative impact. Where multiple risks strike one activity in an iteration they resolve deterministically: series impacts sum, parallel (overlapping) impacts take the single largest, and fragnet events insert their delay after the mapped activity so it propagates through network logic. Distributions in use: triangular, pert. Approach aligned to APM PRAM Guide and AACE International RP 57R-09 practice.
4 · Inputs audit
Item
Value
Schedule source
demo · data date 2026-09-01
Activities / ranged
16 / 16 (100% coverage)
Register risks
5 (4 threats, 1 opportunities)
Calibration preset
typical (-10 / 0 / 25 % of planned duration)
ID
Risk
Type
Prob
Dist
Min
Likely
Max
Mapped to
R-01
Late utility diversion consent
THREAT
35%
triangular
10
20
45
A1050
R-02
Ground conditions worse than expected
THREAT
40%
pert
15
30
60
A1020, A1030
R-03
Switchgear delivery delay
THREAT
30%
triangular
20
40
80
A1100
R-04
Early possession granted
OPP
25%
triangular
5
10
15
A1000
R-05
Commissioning defects
THREAT
45%
pert
5
15
30
A1130
5 · Results — completion distribution
Confidence
Working days
Date
Δ vs deterministic
Deterministic
255
24 Aug 2027
—
P10
265
7 Sep 2027
+10d
P50
311
10 Nov 2027
+56d
P80
348
31 Dec 2027
+93d
P90
370
1 Feb 2028
+115d
6 · Risk drivers (contribution factor)
Risk
Impact on completion
Δ days
Ground conditions worse than expected
+65d
Switchgear delivery delay
+46d
Commissioning defects
+15d
Early possession granted
-9d
Late utility diversion consent
+1d
Contribution factor = mean completion when the risk fires minus mean completion when it does not. Negative (green) values are opportunities pulling completion earlier.
7 · Criticality index
Activity
Criticality
% of iterations critical
Mobilisation
100%
Site clearance
100%
Earthworks & excavation
100%
Piling
100%
Foundations & pilecaps
100%
Substation substructure
100%
Building superstructure
100%
M&E first fix
100%
Switchgear installation
100%
Cabling & terminations
100%
8 · Mitigation scenario comparison
The register's mitigation actions were modelled as a post-mitigation scenario and simulated with the same seed for a like-for-like comparison. The mitigation package buys 48 working days at P80 (37 at P50) for a combined action cost of £135,000 — approximately £2,813 per day saved.
Confidence
Pre-mitigation
Post-mitigation
Days saved
P50
10 Nov 2027
20 Sep 2027
37d
P80
31 Dec 2027
26 Oct 2027
48d
P90
1 Feb 2028
11 Nov 2027
58d
Risk
Mitigation action
Cost
Late utility diversion consent
Early engagement with utility; pre-application consent
£15,000
Ground conditions worse than expected
Additional ground investigation boreholes
£40,000
Switchgear delivery delay
Early procurement + expediting agent
£60,000
Commissioning defects
FAT witness testing + pre-commissioning checks
£20,000
9 · Reproducibility
seed 8812 · iterations 5,000 · engine proto-0.1 · sampling: plain Monte Carlo · fitness READY 100/100 This analysis is exactly reproducible: re-running the same Risk File with the same seed and iteration count yields identical results on any machine.